The past couple of weeks have been very dark and stress filled. I've put myself in a position where I don't really have a backup plan so I simple must make this dream work.
I know the goals are very ambitious but they are based on what I managed to do last year. The scariest part to all of this was/is the beginning. I realized that I was on the hairy edge bankroll management wise, but felt confident that I could get over the initial hurtle without variance kicking me in the nuts.
I was mistaken.
The downward deathspiral you see was the result of some of the worst negative variance I've ever had the misfortune of experiencing.
I lost 4 consecutive $1000+ pots when I was 80% or better to win come river.
The one that will be burnt into my mind forever was a huge $3000 pot that happened on Day 13:
The game 5-200 Spread limit, effective stacks, average around $800ish
I was in the BB with JJhc at a very aggressive donk filled table
UTG raised to $25, CO called, SB called, I called.
Flop(pot $100): Js 3d 4s
SB checks, I check, UTG cbets to $100, CO calls, SB calls, I call.
Turn(pot $500): 3s
SB checks, I check, UTG bets $200, CO raises to $400 (all-in), SB raises to $600 (all-in), I push all-in for $800, UTG calls (he has table covered), CO (all-in), SB (all-in)
River(pot $3000-ish): 2s
UTG: A5ss Straight flush
SB: 44 fullhouse
CO: KTss
Hero: JJ fullhouse
This beat was the last one in a serious of outrageous beats (I won't bore you with the other ones). I remember leaving the casino in a daze, almost like a really bad dream. So, at this point my bankroll is around $300.
During this period of soul crushing variance, I managed to keep my emotions under control. I never tilted nor let the bad beats make me see goblins under the bed. I kept telling myself, its just variance, it happens, that's poker, and eventually the math will even out (i.e. being ahead = winning).
So, when the last beat happened, I remember thinking that this whole venture was just cursed. I was about to leave since so much of my bankroll (effectively 80%) was on the table and I mentally kept telling myself that my risk of ruin was really high. But of course, desperate times call for desperate measures, I needed to win. So, I mitigated my risk by being the world's tightest nit, passing up on several +EV situations simply because I wasn't dominate enough to risk my bankroll. And then the above hand happened and it felt like I was standing in the light at the end of the tunnel. This one pot was going to reset this horrid nightmare and get me back into the swing of things,
and then the river happened...
I left the casino and thought through my options and came to the conclusion that I have to load my online account and grind the micros, get my bankroll back, and give this a shot again.
I contacted my backer and explained everything to her and told her it will take me about 1 month to grind out $2500 online and then I would try this venture again. So, in effect, I told her that we would be slipping one month to the right and she is okay with that.
Since then, i've had to take a step back, and start over at 2NL and 2PLO and work my way up which I will discuss in the next post.
Sorry I haven't been as diligent as I should have been keeping this blog up but you can probably understand I wasn't in the best of moods.
