This was one of those days where I couldn't overcome the negative variance.
My session started off on the right foot, I made some great reads and plays.
5-200 Spread Limit Hold em (like No limit holdem but with a $200 max bet), effective stacks $300, LP short stack with $60
Hero (me) was in the BB with 43hh, MP limps, LP limps, BTN limps, SB folds, I check the action.
Flop(pot $20): 6c Kd 3s rainbow.
Action checks around.
Turn(pot $20): 2c
MP checks, LP pushes all-in $60, everyone folds, Hero calls
River(pot $140): Jd
He turns over Ad Th, Hero wins with pair of threes.
It was completely obvious to me that he had nothing, not even a real draw. He was very readable and just not playing decent short stack poker. He kept buying in for $100, limp calling drawing and folding until he got around $50 then he'd spazz and shove like he did above. Of course, the whole table is looking at me like "How could you call" but as always I never explain myself.
I take a few little dink hits that drop me around $50 when I run into this situation>
I've got $250-ish UTG with T9dd. MP had been a bit of a donk and he raises preflop to $20. BTN was also a bit donkish and he calls, I call. Both players had been overbetting their hands however they had been snap folding whenever they missed. Effective stacks $300
Flop:(pot $60) 8d 7d Kc
I bet out $40, MP max raises all-in for $240, BTN pushes all-in for $240, action gets to me and I have about $200 behind. Both players had been fairly crazy with TPGK type hands and shoving with top pair like its a set, but obviously i'm behind here as the cards stand but i'm pretty sure I'm ahead equity wise. Usually, OESFD (opened ended straight flush draws) have 50% equity or greater vs a pair or even over pair. So, getting more than 2:1 on my money and having 50% or better equity on the flop this is an easy snap call.
Turn: 7c
River Qs
I miss my draws
MP had A8
BTN had KJ and wins $800 pot :(
So, that sucked but I shook it off, all you can do is make the correct play at the time. I rebuy back in for $200 and about fifteen minutes later I get dealt KJhh in MP. I raise to $40, everyone folds but SB calls, he has about $120 behind.
SB had been overvaluing his hands as well so I felt okay about going heads up.
Flop: 7s Jd 3s.
He checks, I bet $60, he check raises all-in, I snap call.
Turn 2h
River Tc
Hero(me) shows KJhh
SB shows JTo and wins with two pair
That hand sucked and I decided to take a quick walk to shake it off. I also made a huge mistake at this point and switched tables. Even though I got sucked out on, the table was a dream table and I should have stayed.
I buy back in for $200 (I'm stuck $400 at this point) and am dealt QQ on the BTN. Now, the problem here is that i'm new to this table and I have no clue how anyone plays. Normally, I like to get a feel for a table before I start shoving but when you are dealt QQ in a live game you have to play your hand.
UTG raises $15 (which is really light for 5-200 Spread limit holdem), UTG+1 calls as do two other players before it gets to me. Pot is $60 by the time it gets to me, I raise to $75 and am now looking at UTG and he folds. Now this is where things get wierd. UTG+1 folds and MP shoves all in for $200.
I have no idea what to make of this, because it makes no sense. Why would you smooth call two players to your right on a dinky raise if you have a big hand? So, I snap call.
Hero: QQ
MP: AA
Board develops: JT988 and I win with a straight
So, i'll take that suck out and now i'm getting back to break even when I run into the sickest run of good cards I have ever had. Too bad the results weren't the same as the cards :(
Within the space of 8 hands, I was dealt QQ, TT, JJ, QQ, AK and I lost every single one of those hands. I made the appropriate raise preflop and in each case a donk or two called me with Ace rag bullshit, and then on each flop an Ace hit the board and the donks would not fold so I didn't even bother trying a cbet. In most cases, I got to witness them fight each other and show down hands like A6cc vs A9dd when the board was like: A K 3 8 7 board.
So, after that, I'm down about $450 and I'm starting to get a little upset, so I stop playing and call it a day since I NEVER play when i'm upset.
Overall, I was thrilled to be at the table. Unlike most players, I WANT donks to call with inferior hands. I just don't want them to hit ;) But, on occassion they do and such is poker.
Tomorrow is Friday, the juiciest day of the week. I'm going to play a tourney in the morning then set up camp and grind all day. It should go better tomorrow.
Wish me luck :)
1st hand -
ReplyDeletenice played - this was a power of read
2nd hand -
T9s on UTG is a crap hand ... the first bad decision was to play it.
You had a read on them that they were "snap folding whenever they missed" after overbetting the pre-flop ... well after all-in on the flop he had to have a TP at least so your chances weren't exceeding 52.5% ... well good decision after a bad decision is still bad decision
anyway your decision to call allin TP was OK so you shouldn't be upset after you lost it.
3rd hand-
he played the AA well .. he wanted to get the most money from players but he had no luck in cards.
You made a bad decision and you won ...
Just remember one thing:
"Luck doesn't give ... it borrows"
Cheers
Hi Jacek,
ReplyDeletelimping UTG with T9s isn't bad, you want to balance your calling range. Calling a smallish raise with T9s UTG in a multiway is okay because you have the implied odds for it. When you flop an OESFD your equity is going to be around 50%. Are you familiar with hold-em calculators? Plug that hand in to any calculator and look at the equity.
3rd hand, that player did not play AA well. It is one thing to limp with AA and hope for a raise. It is quite another to CALL a weak raise with AA in that situation in a multiway pot. When you do that, you are giving weaker hands great implied odds. Then factor in that most players are unable to fold AA after the flop and you have a recipe for disaster.
And my raising with QQ in that spot on the BTN is definitely not a bad play by any stretch of the imagination. The correct play with almost any decent hand in that spot is a big raise to isolate and hopefully get one caller.
Why do I want to give weaker hands a free look at the board when I have the 3rd best starting hand in Hold-em while sitting in the best position? That doesn't make any sense. Poker is all about getting weaker hands to call for more than they are worth.
Truth is, villain with AA just got lucky that someone had QQ. Villian's play of AA is -ev.
When I raise, the only hand i'm really concerned about is UTG. I could maybe expect UTG to be playing AA like that, but not the MP player. Normally, when MP players make the play that he made, it is usually 77-JJ and they think the BTN is trying to steal or at best has 22-TT, Ax, KQ type hands.
Anyways, that is how I see those hands. Of course, if we all thought the same and played the same, then poker would be a very boring game.
Hi again,
ReplyDeletelimping UTG with T9s is OK when there are no aggressive players at the table (or there are only up to 6 players).
It's not bad because of it's weekness but it's bad because of the position which gets you into trouble in most cases when you get a draw (it's harder to make someone fold comparing to LP).
Why do I think he played AA well? Because he managed do what he wanted - to get a lot of cash into the pot before the flop. Maybe he was waiting for a raise from LP basing on other players' images?
I fully agree with the last sentence.
I wish you good luck (since I'm not playing :-) )
Hi Jacek,
ReplyDeleteLast comment about the T9s hand. I see what you are saying, but believe it or not, it is okay to draw when you have the correct odds and equity.
As for the AA hand, a blind squirrel can still find a nut. He misplayed the hand and got lucky a LP player had a big hand. That's all there is to it.
You can't focus on whether or not you win or lose a hand. That is completely irrelevant. The real focus needs to be on whether or not your play is +EV. +EV takes into account implied odds, pot odds, hand ranges, fold equity, position, etc. etc.
There are countless examples where you can be behind in a hand, but still be mathematically correct to call or even shove all-in.
It's human nature to focus on whether we 'won or lost' but that shouldn't be the focus in poker. Results oriented thinking will drive you crazy in poker.
Bernard,
ReplyDeleteI fully agree that calling the all-in was OK, EV was a positive.
My comment was regarding the T9s on UTG itself. From the books I've read you just fold this hand without thinking (UTG).
As for AA ... you know that you can't correctly calculate the EV (odds, pot odds) pre flop in MP ...
limping with AA on EP can sometimes be a better strategy than a pot-bet when there's a read on other players (LAGs) since 3 limpers make an easy bet for an LP with a wide range of hands.
I'm not focusing on winning or losing in the first place ... there are good decisions and bad decisions, but there is not a best decisions without looking at the situation
Beeing more specific - I don't have a pavlov's dog syndrome at all :)
Bernard,
ReplyDeleteBeen following your blog. Keep it up. Have a few comments for thought:
Hand 1: Nice read, but $60 into $20 may not be the right place for a call with 3rd pair + gutty; best case scenario he's got 6 outs and worst case scenario you've got 5...doesn't feel like good EV long-term. Anyway, I think its marginal at best and once you throw in the fact that there actually was one player behind you (MP, if i read it correctly), not a great play long-term. If it were a river call, i'd be all for it, but i just think there's too much variance with him having any two and a card to come and a player behind.
Hand 2: Its ok for table image to play Td9d UTG, though I agree with Jacek that drawing hands are more valuable in late position because you have options (semi-bluff, check,c-raise) and you don't have to c-call to chase your draws. Obviously Td9d is a snap call there after the flop with three-way action. Only time you would consider folding it is in a dry pot with a naked shove heads up (i'm pretty risk-averse in coinflip situations).
Hand 3: I disagree that villian's play with AA is negative EV; I agree that its tough to play correctly in a multi-way pot, but as you saw with your raise, a big raise was only going to scare away the early-position raisers (max EV, +$40). Alternatively, he has a reasonable shot of having position in a pre-flopped raised pot with a completely disguised hand. For table image purposes, its great. And, subsequently, he got it all-in with the best of it so hard to argue there. I don't fault your play though, I think you have to call there with QQ or better based on how he played it (another advantage to the smooth call preflop).
keep up the posting. Also - did you say where you were playing? I didn't catch that.
Your play isn't the problem. You're definitely playing plus EV. I see some problems though.
ReplyDeleteFirst- I probably limp with 9T suited under the gun or fold to any raise. Post flop is a snap call every time because more times than not you take that hand. Also- you think of other players at your table as donkeys because they shove with TPGK but you had no problem doing that yourself and probably think it was the smart move.
All in all your moves are debatable. The big problem is your bankroll management. When you cracked pocket Aces with fishhooks you took down 400+. Thats was nearly 20% of your bank roll at the start of the day and probably closer to 25% after re-buying. Either way you look at it- your breaking your own rule to walk away from the table when you win 15% of your bankroll.
Now your down. You got from around 20 buy ins to around 18. Plus you owe your backer. And even if you cash in the tournament today you only get half. So you probably sit down tonight thinking about how you have to come back and be up at least 1k. And you probably start thinking about how strong your hands really are because of so many bad beats.
My advice, stop playing live for a weekend. Play micro-stakes online. Play as many tables and hands as you can. Play all the tournaments you can on Sunday. Get used to extremely negative variance. Because when you play at live tables with donkeys your wind up seeing it a lot more than when you play with skilled players.
On a side note- Good job with the blog, you marketed nice and are picking up visitors.
Hey guys,
ReplyDeletefirst off, i've given your comments a lot of thought and I appreciate you guys keeping me honest and not letting me thing that my shit doesn't stink.
In terms of thinking of everyone as donks... Sorry if my posts come across like that. Truthfully, 1/2 of the table are donks though but i'm also very very careful to identify good players and even players that I feel are better than I am.
First thing I do is try to spot the 'internet kids' because they are dangerous, probably the most dangerous people in the casino. Then I ID the regs and veterans and semi-pros. Then I move on to maniacs, fish, and donks. Once i have a read on someone I adjust my play accordingly.
As for the Bankroll management. Truthfully, as I stated in my goals section, that is a little bit of a risk in the very beginning of this. I'm holding some of my bankroll back (I only started the blog with $1,000 but I do have some in reserve). But you are right, I am right on the 'edge' and I am conscious of that. I should be out of the redzone and into the yellow zone by next week.
As for playing online. The bankroll risk I am running now is mitigated by the edge I have in live games. And I know that sounds arrogant but it is not. If you are a breakeven player online or a winning player online (which I was both) then you can absolutely CRUSH any low or mid stakes live game.
I'm not sure how many of you guys play live regularly, but it really is pretty damn soft.
I know that online I'm a slightly above average if not just plain vanilla average in terms of my skill level: 25NL - 100NL and 25PLO - 100PLO. But in the live games, I'm easily the best or 2nd best person at the table. Of course, that is just my opinion and big deal, every poker player thinks they are good right?
So hopefully, my results will back up my claims.
In any event, I am VERY appreciative of your guys' comments. I do take them to heart and they are very helpful.